When the quarter-final draw pitted defending Nations League – and European – champions Spain against the Netherlands, fireworks were expected.

The first leg of that standout tie, held at De Kuip in Rotterdam on Thursday, certainly did not disappoint, seeing four goals shared equally.

The Netherlands were closing in on victory after efforts from Cody Gakpo and Tijjani Reijnders put them 2-1 ahead, but Jorrel Hato's red card invited some unwanted late pressure and Mikel Merino struck for Spain three minutes into stoppage time.

Valencia's Mestalla Stadium will host the decisive second leg on Sunday, with a place in the semi-finals – and a meeting with either Croatia or France – at stake.

Here, we look ahead to the game with our Opta-powered preview.

What's expected? 

Spain needed a last-gasp goal from Arsenal utility man Merino to spare their blushes on Thursday, but they enter the second leg as big favourites.

The Opta supercomputer assigns them a 62.4% chance of victory within 90 minutes, with the Netherlands winning in just 17.7% of pre-match simulations.

The remaining 19.9% finished level, and with the away goals rule no longer in effect, that would mean extra time and potentially penalties.

Sunday's match will take place a year and a day after Spain's most recent defeat, a 2-0 friendly loss to Colombia at West Ham's London Stadium.

Since then, La Roja have embarked upon a 17-game unbeaten run, winning 14 of those matches and drawing three, while claiming a record-breaking fourth European crown in the process.

That is their best such run since a 27-match unbeaten streak (18 wins, nine draws) lasting from June 2016 to October 2018, when they suffered a memorable 3-2 Nations League defeat at home to England.

The Netherlands are unbeaten in four meetings with Spain since going down to an Andres Iniesta goal in the 2010 World Cup final (two wins, two draws), a run that began with a 5-1 thrashing of La Roja at the following World Cup.

The Oranje lost three of the teams' first four meetings between 1957 and 1983, but they have only lost one of nine subsequent matches, winning five and drawing three.

Spain widemen to do the damage?

Spain have done an exceptional job of sharing the load in attack throughout this Nations League campaign. 

Germany (20) are the only League A team to better Spain's 15 goals in this Nations League campaign (a tally also matched by the Netherlands), but Fabian Ruiz is the only Roja player to score two goals in this edition of the competition.

Thirteen other Spain players have a single goal to their names, showing Luis de la Fuente's men are not reliant on any one attacker.

But as they showed at Euro 2024, wingers Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal can provide the X-Factor that sets Spain apart from their competitors. 

While Williams became the second-youngest player to score in a Euros final against England last year, Yamal broke Pele's 1958 record as the youngest player to appear in a Euros or World Cup final, one day after his 17th birthday.

His four assists at Euro 2024 were the joint-most any player has ever assisted at a Euros that Opta has on record (from 1980 onwards), and he has gone from strength to strength for Barcelona this campaign.

Yamal has 13 goals and 16 assists in all competitions for the Blaugrana this season, with only Mohamed Salah (22), Rayan Cherki and Raphinha (18) bettering that latter figure among players from Europe's top five leagues.

His total of 29 goal involvements is 11 more than any other teenager has managed, with Paris Saint-Germain's Desire Doue recording 18.

And with Hato suspended for Sunday's match, Yamal will likely be up against Aston Villa's Ian Maatsen, who has been limited to just 606 minutes of Premier League action this season. The Netherlands' second-choice left-back will have to be on his game. 

Clockwork Oranje put faith in fluid frontline

The Netherlands may have lost the expected goals battle on Thursday, creating chances worth 0.61 xG to Spain's 1.40, but Ronald Koeman's team played exciting, dynamic football for long periods.

The Oranje only had 40.3% of the possession in that game, but they converted that into 56 final-third entries compared to Spain's 49.

Goalscorers Gakpo and Reijnders were at the forefront of everything good they did, with the former recording his 21st goal involvement (15 goals, six assists) for his country on his 37th appearance. 

In the 21st century, only Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (23) has managed more in his first 37 caps for the Netherlands, with Arjen Robben also recording 21.

Along with Memphis Depay, Justin Kluivert and Jeremie Frimpong, Gakpo formed part of a fluid front four that caused Spain all manner of problems, particularly in the spell between the Netherlands' two goals in the 28th and 46th minutes.

Koeman's side were well-balanced in attack, sending 33.5% of attacks down their left flank compared to 35.2% down the right, where they used Frimpong's explosive pace to great effect in the build-up to both of their goals.

Koeman described Frimpong's performance as "amazing" after the game, saying: "He was one we had discussed; if you can find him quickly, and he can approach a full-back, he's lethal.

"The way he kept his eyes open, especially before the second goal... He is a big threat and pressures well. His speed is an amazing weapon."

The Netherlands' vertical, pacey approach nearly paid dividends on Thursday, and with Spain likely to control possession on home soil, expect the Orange to adopt a similar approach here. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Spain – Dean Huijsen

Bournemouth defender Huijsen – who was born in the Netherlands and represented them up to Under-19 level before changing allegiance – made his senior Spain debut from the bench on Thursday, when Barcelona's Pau Cubarsi went off injured.

Greeted by a chorus of boos, Huijsen produced a composed performance, completing 53 of his 59 attempted passes with 17 of those passes ending in the final third.

Despite Huijsen only entering the fray in the 41st minute, only Williams (25), Marc Cucurella (20) and Dani Olmo (19) completed more such passes.

Netherlands – Memphis Depay

Depay was the player sacrificed following Hato's red card in the first leg, having threatened without getting on the scoresheet.

The 31-year-old – who has two goals for Corinthians so far this year – created three chances for team-mates, with only Frimpong (four) laying on more.