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Premier League MD24: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

There were some big wins across the Premier League this weekend, but which teams were fortunate and unfortunate according to the data?

The Premier League saw some huge, one-sided scorelines across the weekend of matchday 24.

Arsenal hammered Manchester City 5-1 in the headline match on Sunday, while Nottingham Forest kicked off the weekend's action with a 7-0 demolition of Brighton. There was also a 4-0 win for Everton over Leicester City.

At the top of the standings, Liverpool continued their charge by beating Bournemouth, and Crystal Palace claimed the points at Old Trafford.

Southampton claimed just their second win of the season as they beat Ipswich Town, with Fulham edging out Newcastle United and Tottenham getting a much-needed win by seeing off Brentford 2-0, which is the same scoreline by which Wolves overcame Aston Villa.

Here, we see which teams were fortunate, and unfortunate, based on the underlying metrics.

Unlucky losers: Brentford

Brentford had 20 shots in their home loss to Spurs on Sunday - that is more attempts than any other team managed across Saturday or Sunday's Premier League fixtures.

However, the Bees could not deliver a sting as they went down via an own goal from Vitaly Janelt and a late counter-attacking strike from Pape Sarr.

Thomas Frank's team generated chances worth 2.06 expected goals, while also hitting the woodwork once, and had 49 touches in Spurs' area - a figure bettered by only Manchester United (57) this weekend.

Brentford have now lost four of their last five Premier League home games by at least a two-goal margin (v Nottingham Forest, Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham), as many as such defeats as they had in their previous 23 on home soil in the competition.

Lucky winners: Southampton

Southampton got their first away win of the season, and a first league victory for new boss Ivan Juric, as they got one over on Ipswich at Portman Road.

Paul Onuachu grabbed Southampton's 87th-minute winner, bundling in from close range. 

That chance accounted for 0.39 of Southampton's overall 0.91 xG, with only Spurs (0.86) accumulating a lower xG figure amongst teams to avoid defeat across the weekend's fixtures.

Southampton had only nine shots, though impressively they hit the target with four of them.

Going the other way, the Saints rode their luck, with Ipswich creating chances worth 1.84 xG from their 15 shots.

Lucky winners: Arsenal

Arsenal made light work of Man City in a trouncing at Emirates Stadium, though the underlying numbers do suggest the Gunners finished way above the standard that would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances they created.

Mikel Arteta's team had an xG of just 1.0, which goes to show why you should always take numbers into context when using them to help assess a performance.

Arsenal were clinical when the chances did come in the second half, having squandered several opportunities after going 1-0 up early on.

The Gunners only had 17 touches in the City penalty area, but got seven of their 12 shots on target.

City generated 0.81 xG, with the underlying numbers suggesting a draw may have been a fair result, but given how Pep Guardiola's team defended, it is fair to say that would have been something of a stretch.

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