With 128 days to go before England bid to defend their European title, the reigning continental champions will welcome world champions Spain to Wembley Stadium on Wednesday for a mouth-watering rematch of the Women’s World Cup final.

In a huge test for both sides, the Lionesses will hope to fare better than they did when narrowly coming out second best in Sydney back in August 2023.

With July’s tournament in Switzerland looming large, England are craving a statement result that would give them some much-needed momentum going into the Euros.

The rivalry between England and Spain is growing, with both nations having shaken up the elite of women’s football with their major tournament victories over the past three years.

Facing off this time in the Nations League, they must play each other twice before this summer’s showpiece event.

However, Lionesses fans may be feeling less confident than before about the chances of England retaining their European crown. Their form since that 1-0 defeat to Spain at Stadium Australia has taken a downward trajectory.  

Sarina Wiegman will therefore be looking for a confidence boost. A good performance would be nice, but most importantly, she needs to find a way to win.

The Dutch manager has faced Spain on six occasions as a coach, and only once has she tasted victory – even then she needed extra time to win in the quarter-finals of the Women’s Euros 2022. 

Wiegman has lost four times to Spain, suffering defeats in each of her three meetings with them as Netherlands boss, and the other loss being that heart-breaking World Cup final with England. Her teams have managed just two goals against Spain, conceding seven in return.

A victory would then lay down a marker ahead of the summer, but Spain are world champions for a reason, and will provide the sternest of tests.

Lionesses need their bite back

England’s form has certainly waned since their run to the World Cup final in 2023.

The most notable area of difficulty for the Lionesses has been their attack. They had been free-scoring under Wiegman previously, but in the 18 months since that loss to Spain in Australia, they are lacking their bite up front.

England have played 19 matches since the World Cup, scoring 42 goals from 38.0 expected goals. That is an average of 2.2 goals per game, and 2.0 xG per game, so it is hardly bad going, but when compared to their previous attacking displays, the drop-off is clear.

In 17 matches across qualifying for the World Cup, and then the finals themselves, England plundered an extraordinary 93 goals from 67.7 xG.

These incredible numbers meant that the Lionesses were scoring at a remarkable average of 5.4 goals per match in that period, creating chances worth 3.9 xG per game.

In that time, they had 470 shots, and 953 touches in the opposition box. In their 19 games since, they have managed 275 shots and 549 touches in the opposition box.

That means their per-game average for shots is down from 27.6 to 14.4, while their average touches in the opponent’s box is down from 56 to 28.8, almost half. This downturn is an issue Wiegman will need to address ahead of the Euros.

Another area in which they have struggled has been letting teams back into games in the second half of matches.

England have conceded 10 second-half goals in their 19 fixtures since the World Cup, facing 89 second-half shots. 

In their Nations League opener against Portugal, England suffered the same fate by conceding to an exceptional goal from substitute Kika Nazareth, who fired into the top right-hand corner to earn the hosts a 1-1 draw. 

But based on England’s dominance of the first half, the game should have been long put to bed. The Lionesses accumulated 0.94 of their total 1.12 xG in the first half.

Instead, a second-half momentum shift once again highlighted the issue of England not being able to kill off a game they were in control of.

In their 17 matches across 2023 World Cup qualifying and the tournament finals, they conceded only two second-half goals and allowed 29 fewer shots (60). England must find this form again – they cannot afford to give Spain a sniff on Wednesday night if they do go in front.

Spain's unpredictable threat

As we saw from their own Nations League opener on Friday, Spain are not infallible either. They fell 2-0 down to Belgium, but rallied late in the second half to win 3-2.

Like England, they have also had a tricky spell of form since their victory in the World Cup final. A disappointing run in the Olympics culminated in them being knocked out by Brazil in the semi-finals.

A 4-2 loss to the Selecao was followed by a 1-0 defeat in the bronze medal match to Germany in a tournament that saw the previous world order in women’s football being restored once more, with the United States claiming gold.

But Spain will be buoyed by their win over Belgium, and further boosted by the Lionesses' second-half troubles.

On the other hand, England have won three of their last six meetings with Spain, though did lose their last encounter (the World Cup final).

Despite being short of their best, England are still tough to beat, having lost only one of their last nine competitive fixtures in all competitions (W5 D3), going unbeaten in four (W2 D2) since a 2-1 home loss against France in May last year. 

Wednesday in our sights pic.twitter.com/owQQYO2bgv

— Lionesses (@Lionesses) February 23, 2025

So, Spain's attack will need to be on form. 

Alba Redondo did not score against Belgium, but registered the highest xG (1.36) of any player on matchday one in the Nations League, despite playing just 60 minutes. She will be hoping to be more clinical, having hit the target only twice from six shots.

Redondo also had 11 touches in the opponent’s box – a tally bettered by only Poland’s Ewa Pajor (12). Team-mate and Women’s Super League newcomer Mariona Caldentey also topped the charts for touches, with a remarkable 142, 17 more than next-best Teresa Abelleira (125).

Caldentey created five chances the joint-most of any player across the Nations League opening fixtures along with Italy’s Manuela Giugliano.

Four of the top six players for successful passes across the matchday were Spanish – Caldentey (87), Irene Paredes, Laia Aleixandri and Abelleira (all 85). In comparison, the Lionesses' most successful passer against Portugal was Leah Williamson (56), with Keira Walsh and Niamh Charles next-best on 50 each.

After matchday one, Caldentey (0.73) and Salma Paralluelo (0.7) lead the Nations League for expected assists (xA), with each of those players teeing up a goal apiece, so England will be wary of the creative threat posed across a supremely talented Spain attack.

European elite? The ones to watch

With the rapid growth of the WSL and Liga F, it is no surprise that these two sides have been the teams to beat in the last four years. After years of US dominance on the world stage, and German dominance in Europe, both teams have shown they can upset the apple cart.

Spain boast the talent of Aitana Bonmati, a two-time Ballon d'Or winner.

Bonmati already has 10 goal contributions for Barcelona in the league this season, which is a tally matched by her club and national team-mate Ona Batlle, another player who can do damage.

Only Caroline Graham Hansen (176) has had more touches in the opposition box than Bonmati (131) this season across Europe’s top five leagues. She also ranks second in Europe’s top five leagues for chances created (49 – level with Hansen and behind Giugliano's 50).

Paralluelo is one of Spain's emerging talents that England will have to be wary of.

A former sprinter, Paralluelo is rapid down the wings. She has five goal contributions in just 304 league minutes this season, meaning she averages a goal or assist every 60 minutes.

Arsenal pulled out all the stops to bring Caldentey to London in the off-season, and she has proved a creative force for the Gunners, crafting 26 chances in the WSL this term, a figure bettered only by her club-mate Katie McCabe (33). However, she has the highest expected assists (4.29) in the competition, showing she has created high-quality opportunities.

What about England, then?

Alessia Russo is finally flourishing at Arsenal under new manager Renee Slegers, sitting in second in the Golden Boot race with eight goals, behind Manchester City's Khadija ‘Bunny’ Shaw (11).

Russo also ranks fourth for WSL goal contributions (10 – eight goals, two assists) this term, and has had more shots (48) than any other player in the league. Only Shaw has recorded a higher xG (6.74 to Russo’s 6.13).

Russo grabbed England's goal against Portugal, netting once from three attempts. Lauren James matched Russo for shots (three), although she was unable to convert her chances. However, the Chelsea star remains a big threat, and is a player who thrives in the key moments.

Keira Walsh, who just made a blockbuster move from Barcelona to Chelsea in the winter transfer window, will be known well by her Spanish opponents.

At 91.52%, she has the second-best passing accuracy across Europe’s top five leagues this season of midfielders to attempt at least 50 passes.

An unknown quantity for Spain, however, will be Manchester United’s Grace Clinton, who leads the WSL for duels (204), while no midfielder in the competition has either attempted (50) or completed (20) as many dribbles.

Clinton scored the winning goal in each of her last two England appearances and was aiming to become the youngest player on record to score in three straight for the national team (since 2013), but she could not find the net against Portugal.

With no Georgia Stanway, Clinton has another chance to prove she is capable of playing a big role.

A star performance against one of the world's best teams would do her chances of securing a starting spot at the Euros no harm at all.