Women's Super League predictions: Seagulls' wings to be clipped by perfect Chelsea?
There are six Women's Super League games taking place on Sunday, with Chelsea hosting surprise package Brighton in the standout fixture.
The Women's Super League returns following the international break, with a super Sunday slate of six games promising plenty more thrills and spills.
Chelsea remain perfect at the top of the tree as the season hurtles towards Christmas, winning their first eight WSL matches under Sonia Bompastor – and their first 12 across all competitions.
Brighton and Hove Albion – who are soaring in third after acquiring Chelsea icon Fran Kirby in the off-season – are the next team to attempt to halt their charge.
The day's action begins with a showdown between rivals Manchester United and Liverpool, while Chelsea's foremost challengers Manchester City take on Leicester City.
Elsewhere, Arsenal – still unbeaten under interim boss Renee Slegers – welcome Aston Villa and there are tussles between Tottenham and Everton, and West Ham and Crystal Palace.
But which way will this week's games go? We turned to the trusty Opta supercomputer to get its weekly predictions.
The #BarclaysWSL is back this weekend!
— Barclays Women's Super League (@BarclaysWSL) December 3, 2024
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MAN UTD V LIVERPOOL
Leigh Sports Village Stadium plays host to Sunday's first game as United look to bounce back from their first defeat of the campaign – against Chelsea last time out. They last suffered successive WSL defeats in the final two matchweeks of 2023-24. Those defeats came against Chelsea and Liverpool.
However, the Red Devils boast a positive record against Liverpool, winning two of their three at home against them in the WSL (one loss), including a 6-0 win in January 2023, which remains their biggest victory in the competition.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have lost their last two league games without scoring (0-3 versus Chelsea, 0-1 against Everton); they last lost three in a row in the competition in November 2022 (a run of five).
United will need to step things up in attack, having only managed three shots in their defeat to Chelsea on November 24, their fewest in any of their 110 WSL matches.
If they can find their shooting boots, they should be confident of victory. The Opta supercomputer gives them a 62% chance of a win, compared to 17.9% for Liverpool and a 20.1% likelihood of a draw.
TOTTENHAM V EVERTON
Tottenham suffered comprehensive defeats to both Man City and Arsenal before the international break, and they will attempt to bounce back against an Everton side that finally got their first win on the board last time out, beating Merseyside rivals Liverpool 1-0.
The Toffees have a 50% win rate against Tottenham in the WSL (five wins, four draws, one loss), only boasting a better ratio against Aston Villa (63%) in the competition.
Tottenham also have the leakiest defence in the division this term, shipping 21 goals through eight games – their most ever at this stage of a top-flight campaign.
Yet they are still favoured by the supercomputer, with home advantage surely a key factor given Everton are winless in four away matches this season. Spurs triumphed in 53.3% of our pre-match simulations, with Everton winning 22.8% and 23.9% ending all square.
This weekend
— Tottenham Hotspur Women (@SpursWomen) December 3, 2024
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MAN CITY V LEICESTER
Kicking off one hour before the league leaders, Gareth Taylor's Man City have a chance to cut the gap at the summit – even if only temporarily – to two points when they host Leicester.
A victory for the hosts would represent Taylor's 72nd in the WSL and take him level with Nick Cushing for the second-most victories by any manager in the competition's history (Emma Hayes has 151).
The supercomputer certainly fancies his chances of climbing those charts, with City victorious in 89.5% of pre-match simulations, only losing in 3.6% and being held to a draw in 6.8%.
Though City saw their unbeaten start to the campaign halted by Chelsea last time out, it is easy to see why they are such hefty favourites. They have won 11 of their last 12 home WSL matches (one loss) and have never lost on their own turf in the month of December (eight games, seven wins, one draw).
Chloe Kelly will be one to watch for struggling Leicester, having scored in each of her last three WSL games against the Foxes. However, she is currently on her longest drought in the competition, failing to net in 13 outings since she last scored in February – against Leicester.
CHELSEA V BRIGHTON
Chelsea coach Bompastor has already made history by winning her first eight WSL games at the helm – a feat no manager had previously achieved.
On Sunday, her Blues team could equal the best-ever start to a season in competition history, as only Arsenal in 2018-19 have ever started a campaign with nine straight victories.
Brighton, however, have won five of their eight league matches this campaign to sit third, eight points adrift of the Blues. The Seagulls already have as many victories in 2023-24 as they managed across the whole of last season in the top flight (five).
Former Chelsea star Kirby has been key to their rise, and she registered a goal and an assist as they beat West Ham 3-2 last time out. That made her just the fourth player to register 100 or more WSL goal involvements, with her total of 101 now only surpassed by Vivianne Miedema (116) and Beth Mead (111). Beth England has 100 exactly.
Despite Brighton's strong start, Chelsea are – as most observers would expect – big favourites.
The supercomputer gives the Blues a 90.8% chance of remaining perfect, with Brighton assigned just a 3.1% chance of victory and the likelihood of a draw rated at 6%.
ARSENAL V ASTON VILLA
Chelsea are not the only team likely to be cursing the timing of the international break. Arsenal have been on a roll since Slegers took over from Jonas Eidevall, going unbeaten in seven games across all competitions under their interim coach.
With Aston Villa only winning once in eight matches this term, the Gunners are big favourites (83.3%) for victory with the supercomputer on Sunday. Villa are given just a 6.2% chance of inflicting Slegers' first defeat, and a 10.5% hope of escaping the Emirates Stadium with a point.
Arsenal have won their last two WSL games without conceding and could now register three straight victories to nil for the first time since October 2022, when they put together a remarkable run of 10 successive wins without conceding.
They have been boosted by the return to form of Alessia Russo, who is aiming to score in four straight matches in the WSL for the first time. Only Khadija Shaw and Guro Reiten (four) bettered her three WSL goals during the month of November.
The Gunners had better beware Villa's strong record in London, though. Only Man City (55%) and Man Utd (35%) have a better WSL win rate in the capital than Villa (29%) among clubs hailing from outside London.
WEST HAM V CRYSTAL PALACE
Sunday's action ends with a London derby between West Ham and Crystal Palace, with the two teams occupying the bottom two places in the league with five points apiece.
The supercomputer sees this game as the most difficult to call across the division on matchday nine. West Ham won 45.7% of our pre-match simulations, with 26.8% finishing level and 27.5% going Palace's way.
Since the start of last season, West Ham have lost the most games (18), won the fewest points (20), conceded the joint-most goals (59) and scored the fewest goals (26) of any ever-present team in the WSL.
However, they did beat Leicester in their last home match and will have noted Palace's tendency to throw points away.
Only Villa (eight) have dropped more points from winning positions than Palace (seven) in the WSL this term, with the Eagles going 1-0 ahead in three of their last four league matches but failing to win any.