A few months ago, most fans would have had Sunday's clash between Arsenal and Manchester City circled in the diary as a potential title decider, a clash between Mikel Arteta's challengers and Pep Guardiola's all-conquering champions.

However, a serious knee injury suffered by Rodri in September's return fixture between the teams was the turning point in City's season, with their title defence unravelling since that feisty 2-2 draw. 

Any hopes of retaining their crown look to be long gone, with Champions League qualification the limit of their ambitions.

Arsenal, meanwhile, are clinging on in the title race. Entering matchday 24 six points behind Liverpool having played an additional game, the Gunners have little – if any – room for error.

Arsenal rounded off their Champions League group-phase campaign with a 2-1 win at Girona on Wednesday and will head straight into the last 16, while City must navigate the play-offs following their nervy 3-1 win over Club Brugge. 

As these two giants return to league action, we preview the latest instalment in their rivalry with our Opta-powered preview.

Back on the road this weekend

#AsahiSuperDry pic.twitter.com/X28ZzF5JZi

— Manchester City (@ManCity) January 30, 2025

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal favourites for Sunday's game, with a 46% chance of victory, while City won 28.6% of our pre-match simulations.

The last two league meetings between these sides have finished level, with the chances of a third successive draw between them rated at 25.4%.

The teams' last meeting – that aforementioned 2-2 draw at the Etihad Stadium – saw Arsenal penned back for long periods after Leandro Trossard was sent off.

John Stones scored a 98th-minute equaliser with City's 28th shot of the second half, the joint-second highest by a team on record (from 2003-04) in a single half of Premier League football, only behind City's 34 in their iconic late win over Queens Park Rangers to clinch the title in May 2012.

Arsenal beat City 1-0 when the teams last faced off at the Emirates in October 2023. They last won consecutive home league games against City between 2005-06 and 2008-09 (a run of four straight victories).

Having won 12 consecutive league games against Arsenal between 2017 and 2023, City are now winless in their last three against them (two draws, one loss).

Set-piece masters to meet their match?

Arsenal have lacked a cutting edge in attack with Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus sidelined, leading them to chase a new forward in the last few days of the January transfer window.

However, their set-piece prowess has allowed them to churn out results. Their 12 goals via set-pieces (excluding penalties) are the most of any team in the Premier League this season.

Arsenal players also have nine assists directly from set-pieces in the Premier League this term. That is the most of any team, with Kai Havertz, Thomas Partey and Declan Rice all chipping in with two apiece and Saka having three.  

City, however, have only conceded two goals from set-pieces excluding penalties in 2024-25, the joint-fewest in the competition alongside Brentford. 

One of those was a Gabriel Magalhaes header from a corner earlier this season, and five of the last 10 Premier League goals Arsenal have scored against City have come from corners.

Arsenal boast an aerial duel success rate of 51.24% in the Premier League this season, a figure only bettered by six sides. City, meanwhile, rank fifth-bottom by the same metric, winning 48.46% of their duels in the air.

Therefore, Abdukodir Khusanov – whose mistake led to City going behind in their 3-1 win over Chelsea last weekend – could face a very different kind of test. Prior to leaving Lens, the 20-year-old ranked in the 85th percentile among centre-backs for aerial duels won in Ligue 1 in 2024-25, so he should possess the attributes to cope.

Haaland firing on all cylinders

As City's title defence collapsed in the first half of the season, much of the focus – understandably – focused on Rodri, with his injury leaving City undermanned in midfield.

However, an inability to defend counter-attacks was far from City's only problem, with their attacking talisman also underperforming.

During a run of 13 Premier League games starting with that Arsenal fixture on 28 September and ending with a Boxing Day draw with Everton, Haaland only scored three times.

During that spell, Haaland had 47 shots worth 8.2 expected goals (xG) – only Mohamed Salah (11.12) and Cole Palmer (9.42) had higher value chances in that period. But the Norwegian underperformed his underlying figures by 5.2 goals and was outscored by City defender Josko Gvardiol (four goals). 

However, something has clicked for Haaland since he netted in City's final outing of 2024 – a 2-0 victory at Leicester City. He has five goals in his last five Premier League appearances, exceeding his xG figures by 1.1 (3.9 xG). 

He has hit the target with 81.25% of his shots in his last five league games (13 of 18), having only done so with 55.56% in his previous 13 (20 of 47).

While Robert Sanchez's positioning was arguably at fault when he put City 2-1 up in last week's win over Chelsea, Haaland showed great composure to lob the Blues goalkeeper after winning a tussle with Trevoh Chalobah. 

The two-time Golden Boot winner looks to be approaching top form again, which is bad news for Arsenal, against whom he has scored three times in five league appearances. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal – Gabriel Magalhaes

Gabriel scored against City earlier this season and has three Premier League goals overall this season – Gvardiol, with five, is the only defender to outscore the Brazilian.

Arsenal have had a league-high eight goals scored by defenders overall this campaign. 

Manchester City – Phil Foden 

Foden has found form recently, following a slow start to the campaign. He scored more Premier League goals in January than any other player, netting six times from six shots on target. 

He is the fifth player on record (2003-04 onwards) to score as many as six goals with every shot on target in a month, along with Jermain Defoe in March 2008, Dimitar Berbatov in December 2011, Sergio Agüero in August 2019 and Taiwo Awoniyi in May 2023 (all six).